Suzanne Abou Said Daou

A Lebanese scientific study conducted by the Lebanese American University (LAU) predicted that the number of new cases of Corona virus, or COVID_19, (COVID-19) in Lebanon by the end of June, will reach three million people, if life continues as usual, that is, the precautionary measures were not taken in terms of social distancing and general mobilization rules announced by the government and the precautionary home quarantine not implemented.

The study by LAU, the Office of Graduate Studies and Research, predicted forecasts for the daily numbers of infected cases and daily recovery as well as expected deaths during a 112-day period beginning on March 19^th and ending at the end of June2020 based on three scenarios:

FREE-FOR-ALL: No social distancing measures are followed, and normal life is assumed;
MODERATE DISTANCING: 1 out of every 4 people moves freely or resumes normal life;
EXTENSIVE DISTANCING: 1 out of every 8 people moves freely or resumes normal life.

The accompanying statistics showed in a graph form the expected results:

The forecast was based on time series analysis using data before March 19th to forecast and predict the number of recoveries.

The model used assumes that the primary mortality rate is 3 percent of the total identified cases, which increases to 6 percent once the total number of critical cases requiring intensive care exceeds 250 patients, and this last figure reflects the limitations of the healthcare system.

The expected results do not include other factors (such as lifestyle, environmental factors, relatives (consanguinity), etc.); however, the model is applied to data from the city of Wuhan, China the epicenter of Coronavirus and appears to capture trends as they happened in the Chinese city.

In the first scenario, that is, the return to normal life, or life as usual, without taking into account social distancing, which is the worst approach or what is called Free for all; It is expected, of the Lebanese population, about 3 million people will be infected with COVID-19 (precisely 2.911.344), or 42.51percent of population, while two million 735 thousand people are to recover, and the number of deaths will be 173 thousand by the end of June, but in the case of the second scenario, i.e. one person of every 4 people out of premises, or MODERATE DISTANCING, it is expected that about 157 thousand people will be infected, specifically ( 156,915 people) or 2.29 percent of population, 135,268 recovered, and 4,685 people may die.

As for the third scenario, i.e., EXTENSIVE DISTANCING, one out of every 8 people out of premises, will result in 0.23 percent of the population infected, i.e. 15,906 people, 15,015 expected to recover, and 472 people are expected to die.

The COVID-19 has infected 250,602 people globally, while 89,044 have recovered, there was 10,254 deaths and 7,440 in critical condition according to worldometers.info

Photo Sources: LAU

Main Photo:

 from Baltahji's Tracker, the first interactive Lebanese map created by cyber security expert Ghassan Baltahji to track Corona Virus cases, for the detailed up to date table check this link